A new approach to systematic investing

Like an army of analysts who judge every stock by the same rules — then read each one’s situation differently, and correctly.

iClaudius Capital runs a reinforcement-learning system that manages a portfolio of 100 large US companies the way no human team could: applying perfectly consistent judgement across every stock at once, while still weighing each company’s own context on its own terms. A genuinely different way to invest — built to pursue returns that outpace simply holding the market.

For investors evaluating the strategy. Written to be readable without a finance background, with the technical detail a professional would ask for kept a click away.

The case

Why this is different from most systematic strategies

A handful of deliberate choices set the approach apart — each one made to matter to the person putting up capital, not just to the engineering.

01 · The method

It learns to manage a portfolio, not to predict prices

Most models try to forecast whether a stock goes up. This one uses reinforcement learning to decide how much of the portfolio every share should hold, each morning, across the whole universe at once — the same learned rules applied to every stock, each one read in its own context and relative to the others, the way a disciplined manager weighs a book rather than a single name.

02 · The edge

It earns from movement, not from guessing long-term winners

The returns don't come from picking which company will win over years. They come from capturing price movement across the portfolio over horizons of days to a few weeks — above all around the moments the news says a big move is likely. A fundamentally different, and more repeatable, source of return than long-term stock-picking.

03 · The test

It has to survive its worst regime, not just look good on average

The bar for going live is deliberately harsh: a strategy that's brilliant on average but breaks in one bad market never makes it into a real account. Resilience across conditions is the test — measured strictly on data the model was never trained on.

04 · The risk stance

It can profit when the market falls — carefully, and net-long

The system isn't limited to rising markets: alongside its core long portfolio it runs a small, capped short sleeve that can earn when prices fall. But it's deliberately restrained — the book stays firmly net-long, the short exposure is strictly limited, and the aim is downside resilience, not aggressive betting against stocks.

05 · Real-world costs

It's rewarded for after-cost returns, not paper ones

Trading costs are built into what the model is trained to maximise, so it can't win by racking up trades that fees would quietly eat in a live account. It optimises what actually reaches the portfolio, not a flattering simulation.

06 · The honesty

The benchmark is fair, and the limitations are stated

Success is measured against simply buying and holding the same basket — so the system only gets credit for genuinely doing something smarter. And where there are known limitations, this site says so plainly rather than hiding them. Candour is part of the pitch.

The philosophy

Why should this edge exist at all?

Any strategy worth backing should be able to say where its returns come from — and why that source of return hasn't already been competed away. Here is the honest version.

BREADTH

Most people read one stock at a time

Analysts, commentators and most investors form views name by name. This system reads the whole basket against itself every day — hundreds of relative comparisons refreshed daily, a breadth of attention no individual sustains.

RE-WEIGHTING

What matters changes with the weather

Sometimes fundamentals drive returns; sometimes news and mood dominate; sometimes only momentum matters. Humans re-weight their thinking slowly. The model was trained across years of shifting conditions to adjust that balance continuously.

DISCIPLINE

Markets over- and under-react

Prices routinely move too far on news and too little on quiet evidence. Harvesting that is less about seeing what others can't and more about acting on it consistently, without fear, boredom or fatigue — which is precisely what an automated, cost-aware daily cycle does.

When it struggles — said plainly

The edge lives in the differences between shares. In markets where everything moves together and nothing distinguishes one name from another, there is less for the system to work with — and a future genuinely unlike anything in its training history is the risk that never fully goes away. That's why the deployment bar is worst-regime survival, and why hard limits sit outside the model.

2,000,000+training episodes run

Edison tested thousands of filaments before a light bulb that lasted. Dyson built 5,127 prototypes before a vacuum that worked. A learning trading strategy is the same kind of endeavour — overwhelmingly failure, until it isn't.

This system learns by trial and error across years of market history, one episode at a time. More than two million have been run so far, and the vast majority were discarded. What survives is only what cleared the deliberately harsh bar described above — nothing reaches a live account because it happened to look good once.

Edison — thousands of filaments Dyson — 5,127 prototypes iClaudius — 2,000,000+ episodes

Generations

Three generations — and why the current one is simpler

The first generation was a 12-stock prototype. The second grew to 59 stocks and a far more elaborate design. In September 2026 a full audit of that generation found that its training simulator could, in subtle ways, see price information from later in the periods it was tested on — enough to flatter its test results. Rather than patch it, the model was rebuilt from the ground up.

The third generation — the current one — trades 100 large US companies with a deliberately small model, built back up one input at a time. Every addition has to earn its place on periods the model never trained on, and the final test period is locked in code until every choice has been made. The richer inputs that survived that process are the ones shown in Inside a trade below; the elaborate architecture did not.

Where it started · the 12-stock prototype

The first-generation prototype traded a 12-stock universe on a simulated (paper) account for six months. Its equity curve is shown against buy-and-hold of its own basket — the same fair-benchmark test every generation must face.

100120140160180 Feb ’26Mar ’26Apr ’26May ’26Jun ’26Jul ’26
12-stock prototype (paper account) Buy-and-hold of the same 12 stocks

Earlier-generation model, 12-stock universe, simulated paper-trading account, Jan–Jul 2026. Shown as development history only — simulated results do not include all real-world frictions, this is not the current strategy, and it is not indicative of future performance. The live, independently verified record is being built on Darwinex (CLUD).

The results

Performance & track record

Performance is judged against a fair benchmark — how the system did versus simply holding the same basket. That choice does double duty: it strips out the market's own rise and fall, so what remains is genuine decision-making rather than an accidental bet on the market or a sector going up. A live, independently-verified track record is being built on Darwinex under the ticker CLUD, and is linked directly below; the chart on this page is illustrative only.

The system Benchmark

The shape above is illustrative. What matters is the live track record, measured the same honest way: returns after real trading costs, set against a simple market benchmark rather than a flattering one.

This is a long-term, iterative project — not a finished product making promises. The strategy is refined continually, and the verified record is what speaks for it. The model generation trading the account changes only through the promotion process described below, and the record covers every generation that has traded it.

See the live track record

Under the hood

How it actually works

For those who want the mechanics. The system has two halves that run every trading day: first it builds one clean picture of the market, then a trained model reads that picture and decides what to trade. The rest of this section walks through both — in plain terms.

The big picture

Two halves, one loop, repeated every trading day.

The whole system reduces to this: data comes in, the model reads it, trades go out — then it all happens again tomorrow. Everything that follows is just these two halves in more detail.

01 · INPUT

The data

Prices, company events, analyst views and news — every article read and scored before the market opens.

02 · DECIDE

The model

A trained model reads the day's snapshot and sets a target weight for every share, judged against the others.

03 · OUTPUT

The trades

The gap between today's book and the targets becomes real orders through the broker, sized with care.

Part One

The Data

What the system looks at, where it comes from, and how it becomes one clean picture the model can read.

§ 01 · The ingredients

What the system looks at each day

Think of what a careful human trader would want on their desk every morning. The system gathers the same three things — just for a whole basket of US shares at once, every single day.

Market

Prices & movement

Daily price and trading volume for every share in the basket — the raw pulse of the market.

Fundamentals

Company events & analysts

Company results and events, and the views of the analysts who cover each business.

News

News, read before the open

Every recent article on every share is read by a language model before 9:30 each morning, and turned into a measured view of how big a move the day could bring.


§ 02 · The gathering

Where the data comes from — and how it stays clean

The point here isn't the plumbing. It's that the whole collection routine runs itself, on a schedule, and is built to keep an honest, unbroken record even when a source has an off day.

RUNS ITSELF

On a schedule

Fresh data is pulled automatically each day. Nobody has to sit and press a button for the system to stay current.

CHECKS ITSELF

Verified & gap-filled

Incoming data is checked for holes and oddities, and gaps are filled sensibly so the record stays continuous.

RECOVERS

Survives hiccups

If a source stalls, the system carries on from the last good record rather than breaking or inventing numbers.

What if a data source fails?

Nothing dramatic. The system keeps the last reliable figures, flags that something was missing, and picks the source back up on the next run. A bad-data day never quietly turns into a bad-trade day. Prices arrive already adjusted for splits and dividends, and the stable large-company universe means corporate upheavals that scramble a price history are rare — and checked for rather than assumed away.


§ 03 · The translation

Turning raw information into signals

Raw prices and news aren't much use to a model on their own. They get translated into a consistent set of measurements — the same ones, computed the same way, for every share, every day.

FROM PRICES

Price behaviour

How each share has been moving and trading, measured against every other share in the basket.

FROM EVENTS

Company & analyst signals

What each company's latest results and the analysts covering it are saying, turned into comparable measures.

FROM NEWS

Odds of a big move

Not a positive/negative mood score: how likely a big move is that day, how big, and when the catalyst lands.


§ 04 · The handoff

The daily snapshot

Everything in Part One exists to build one thing: a single tidy table, one row per share, refreshed each day. This is the picture the model reads — and the exact point where the data half hands over to the decision half.

morning snapshot · one row per share 29 Jul 2026 · before the open
ShareOdds of a 6%+ moveExpected moveCatalystModel reads →
LRCX52% (top 1% of its history)≈ 6.8%results after the closelong
CMG50% (top 1% of its history)≈ 6.2%results after the closeshort
…………98 more
A real morning from a research run, cut down to two of the 100 rows and three of the many columns. The news said the same thing about both shares — a big move is coming today. Which way to lean came from how that combined with everything else in the row. LRCX opened 20.3% higher the next day; CMG opened 8.9% higher, against the short. Both are taken apart in § 06.

Part Two

The Decisions

How the model reads that daily snapshot and turns it into real, sensibly-sized trades — with guardrails.

§ 05 · The decision-maker

How the system decides what to trade

The model is the decision-maker. It reads the day's snapshot and decides how much of the portfolio each share should hold — then trades toward those targets. What makes it different from a rulebook is how it learned to choose.

NOT HAND-WRITTEN RULES

It learned from history

Instead of following instructions like "buy when X happens," the model was trained on the earlier years of market history, learning which combinations of signals tended to pay off after costs — and which didn't.

SAME RULES FOR EVERY STOCK

One set of judgements, 100 readings

Every share is read by the same learned rules, each in its own context and against the rest of the basket. Deliberately simple: a large model trained on a few years of daily data memorises the past instead of learning from it.

ONE NUMBER PER SHARE

A target weight

For each share the model sets a target — more, less, none, or within strict limits a modest short to protect against or profit from a fall. The book stays net-long throughout; complexity lives in reading the market well, not in exotic actions.


§ 06 · Inside the decisions

How the model reads the news — and everything else

A model that can't be explained can't be trusted. So every trade is taken apart: each group of inputs is switched off in turn and the decision re-run. The part of the decision that disappears is what that group was carrying. Below: the model from a September 2026 research run, trading a period held out of its training (16 July – 21 September 2026, 47 trading days).

66%
of an average winning decision disappears without the news
47%
disappears without recent price action and trading
3 in 4
winning buys and adds had news carrying at least 15% of the decision

The news scorer: how big, not which way

The news enters the model through a language model that reads, each morning, before the open, the recent articles on every share. It does not decide whether news is "good" or "bad" — language models remember too much market history to be trusted with that on past data, and direction scores failed exactly that test. It answers a question it can answer honestly: how likely is a big move, and when does the catalyst land?

IT READS

The latest articles on each share

The newest articles published before 9:30 that morning — results previews, company releases, analyst notes, market wrap-ups. Nothing published after the open can reach that day's decision.

IT RETURNS

Odds and timing

How likely a big move is, how big it could be, whether the catalyst falls before, during or after the session — and a one-line read of why.

THE MODEL ADDS

The rest of the picture

Which way to lean comes from the model: the news odds combined with price behaviour, company events and analyst views — and with how the same odds look on every other share that morning.

Key moves, taken apart

Four positions, from first buy to exit: what the model saw each morning, the scorer's own words, and what the stock did. A loss is included, because it shows the limits as clearly as the winners show the method.

LRCXlong27 Jul → 3 Aug 2026 · semiconductor equipment

A small stake on trend, a large one into results, out once the move was priced

27 Jul · opened at 1% of the book
News share · 23%
Led by
its price trend — one of the strongest of all 100 shares
Odds of 6%+
35%, results two sessions away
29 Jul · added, 1% → 17%
News share · all of it
Odds of 6%+
52% — above 99% of its earlier days
Catalyst
results after the close

The scorer's readEarnings land inside window; recent 21-bar median move 5.4% signals hot semis regime, so large two-sided gap likely.

3 Aug · closed
News share · 82%
Odds of 6%+
down to 27%, catalyst behind it

On 29 July the scorer had read 13 articles from the week before — mostly results previews and estimate round-ups.

Next open after results: +20.3%. The scorer called it two-sided; the lean came from the trend the model had already bought.

CRWDlong6 Aug → held to the end of the period · cybersecurity

Unusual attention first, then a large position into results

6 Aug · opened at 1% of the book
News share · 61%
Odds of 6%+
17% — above 88% of its earlier days
Also
its price trend, and how its odds compared with the other shares'

The scorer's readOnly PR/marketing news; earnings outside window. But 21-bar median move (3.27%) is double the annual (1.65%), signaling a hot regime.

26 Aug · added, 3% → 28% of the book
News share · all of it
Odds of 6%+
56% — above 99% of its earlier days
Also
a scheduled event inside the window, and the same strong price trend

The scorer's readEarnings land inside window; options imply big move, hot recent regime (21-bar median 3.2% vs 1.7%), two-sided outcome.

On 26 August the scorer read the newest 16 of 33 articles — mostly results previews, plus a partner announcement from the company.

Next open after results: +14.0%.

MUlong7 Aug → held to the end of the period · memory chips

No scheduled event at all — trend first, news second

7 Aug · opened at 1% of the book
News share · 47%
Led by
its price trend — one of the strongest of all 100 shares
Odds of 6%+
34% — above 90% of its earlier days

The scorer's readHot regime: 21-bar median 4.8% vs 3.0% long-run; memory names gapping daily both ways; mild positive tone into open.

14 Aug · added, 1% → 9%
News share · 80%
Odds of 6%+
34%, and high against the other shares that morning
Catalyst
a sector rally, landed just before the open

The scorer's readMemory complex in violent rebound; 21-bar median move 4.8% vs 3.0% long-run. Momentum favors upside but two-sided swings likely.

More than 100 articles on MU each week; the scorer reads the newest 16.

Next open after the add: +2.1%, and still held when the period ended.

CMGshort22 Jul → 30 Jul 2026 · restaurants

The loss: the right kind of move, the wrong day, the wrong way

22 Jul · opened short
News share · 97%
Odds of 6%+
38% — above 98% of its earlier days
Expected move
≈ 6.0%

The scorer's readPre-earnings caution flagged; CMG Q2 report almost certainly lands in window; historic earnings gaps 7-13%, hot regime, food-safety noise.

29 Jul · still short, into the real results
What went wrong
the results came a week later than the scorer expected
Odds of 6%+
50% on 29 Jul — results after the close

The scorer's read, 29 JulEarnings land after close inside window; CMG has history of large post-earnings gaps amid weak comps and depressed stock.

Next open after results: +8.9%, against the short; closed on 30 July at a loss. The scorer was right that a big move was coming and said it could go either way — this time the model leaned the wrong way. Losses like this are why no single name may exceed a hard cap of the book.

Research illustration. Simulated trades on a period held out of the model's training, with the same trading costs used in testing — not live trades, not the traded account's record, and not indicative of future results. Trade examples are the model's own positions; the headline figures average the model with its closest variants from the same research run. Article counts are as logged by the news scorer, whose reads are quoted as it wrote them. Stock moves are open to next open.


§ 07 · The last mile

From decision to real trades

A decision on a screen isn't a trade. The system turns each choice into an actual order through the broker — sized sensibly, and deliberately avoiding trades so small the costs would eat them.

Why costs get their own rule

Every trade carries a fee. The system won't place a trade so tiny that the fee swallows the benefit — a small but real discipline that stops the strategy quietly leaking money on pointless micro-trades.


§ 08 · The guardrails

Risk and safeguards

The honest answer to "how do I know it won't do something reckless?" A handful of hard limits sit around the model, independent of whatever it decides on any given day.

Position & short limits

No single share can grow beyond a set share of the portfolio, and total short exposure is strictly capped with the book kept net-long — so no one bet, long or short, can sink the whole book.

Cost-aware trading

The minimum-trade rule keeps the system from churning through fees on trades too small to matter.

Bad-data checks

Suspect or missing data is caught before it can drive a trade, so a data glitch never becomes a bad order.

Fails safe, not fast

If the machine, connection or broker link drops, the portfolio is a net-long book of liquid shares with only a small, capped short sleeve — so an outage means it largely just holds until the system is back, rather than being forced into hurried trades while dark.


§ 09 · The gatekeeping

How a model earns its place

The production model is not tweaked, tuned or swapped on a whim. Every candidate faces the same gauntlet, and the incumbent keeps its seat until a challenger beats it on identical terms.

STEP 1

Trained on the past, then frozen

Candidate models are trained only on the earlier three-quarters or so of the history. Each is trained several times from different random starting points and the copies are averaged, so no single lucky run can carry the result. What was trained is what gets judged.

STEP 2

Chosen only on data it didn't train on

Every choice — settings, which saved version to keep, whether a new input earns its place — is made on two later validation periods, with the more recent one counting double. A model that shines on the older period and stumbles on the newer one cannot rank well.

STEP 3

A final period, locked in code

The most recent stretch of history is locked: the software refuses to read it until every choice has been written down. It is opened once. After that the candidate still has to hold up in its worst out-of-sample stretch and beat the incumbent head-to-head, before simulated trading and then real money.

Model governance, in one sentence

Changes to the production model are rare, deliberate, versioned and reversible — a challenger is promoted only when it beats the current model under the full test regime, never because a chart looked promising, and there is no manual override of the live model's daily decisions.

Adding data is a candidate too

New information doesn't go in because it sounds useful. Every candidate data source and design change is tested the same way — and most are left out, because they don't improve the validation periods.


§ 10 · The shape

How the portfolio is shaped

Beyond individual buy and sell decisions, the portfolio itself has a deliberate architecture — the constraints that hold regardless of what the model wants on any given day.

CONCENTRATION

No single name can dominate

A hard cap limits how much of the portfolio any one share can occupy. Conviction is allowed; betting the book on one company is not.

CASH

Standing aside is a decision

The system is never forced to be fully invested. Holding cash is a legitimate position, and in conditions it reads as unattractive, it will simply do less.

TURNOVER

Trading has to pay for itself

Because costs are inside the objective the model is trained on, turnover is self-limiting — the system trades when the expected benefit clears the real-world cost of the trade, and not otherwise.

A note on capacity

The strategy trades highly liquid, large US listed companies on a daily cycle. At its current and foreseeable scale, its orders are a negligible fraction of daily traded volume in those names — capacity is not the binding constraint; discipline is.

Common questions

The things people ask first

Is this fully automated?+

Yes. The system gathers its own data, makes its own decisions, and places its own orders on a daily cycle. A person watches over it, but the day-to-day trading runs without manual input.

What does it trade — and why exclude the Magnificent 7?+

A fixed group of 100 large, liquid US companies, all of them eligible for the DARWIN platform. It doesn't roam the entire market chasing tips; it works the same defined universe every day, which keeps its behaviour consistent and measurable.

One deliberate exclusion: the "Magnificent 7" mega-caps (the handful of dominant names like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and their peers). The reason is about signal quality. These companies generate an enormous volume of news and attention every single day, most of which is noise rather than genuinely price-relevant. Because the model judges every stock relative to the others, letting a few names carry that outsized, noisy information load would distort the comparison. Removing them keeps every stock on a comparable footing — so the model's relative judgements stay meaningful rather than being dominated by whichever mega-cap is in the headlines that day.

How often does it trade?+

It reviews the whole basket once per trading day, at the open, once the morning's news has been read and scored, and adjusts where the model sees reason to. It's not a high-frequency system firing thousands of trades — and trading costs are built into what it's trained on, which actively discourages needless churn.

What happens in a market crash?+

Better placed than a purely long portfolio. Position limits cap any single exposure, and the model can both reduce its long holdings and lean on a small, capped short sleeve — so it can cushion, or even profit from, a falling market rather than simply ride it down. It stays net-long throughout, so this is protection, not a bet on collapse — and no honest system can promise it never loses.

How is this different from a person picking stocks?+

Consistency. It reads the same signals the same way every day, across the whole basket at once, without fatigue, mood, or the pull of a dramatic headline. It's a disciplined process, not a personality.

For the sceptical reader

The devil is in the detail

The questions a professional allocator actually asks — how the models are trained, on what data, and how the well-known traps are handled. No hand-waving.

What's the machine-learning approach — and why not just predict prices?+

It's deliberately not supervised prediction — there's no model trying to answer "will this stock go up?" It's reinforcement learning: the model learns a policy for managing the whole portfolio, looking at the entire universe at once and judging each share against the rest.

It's rewarded for after-cost returns. Real trading costs are inside what the model is trained to maximise, so it can't win by racking up trades that fees would eat in a live account.

And it's deliberately small. A few years of daily data is not much to learn from, and a large model memorises the past instead of learning from it. The current generation was rebuilt from a basic model and grown only where the evidence on unseen data said so.

How were the models trained on past performance?+

By trial and error across the earlier years of market history — the model proposes portfolio decisions, sees how they would have played out after costs, and gradually improves the policy that produced them. Several independently trained copies are averaged into the model that is judged.

The specifics of the architecture, the exact inputs, and the training and validation regime are proprietary and deliberately not detailed here — but the principles that keep it honest, especially the out-of-sample discipline and the fair benchmark, are described throughout this section.

How is it validated? (The part that actually matters.)+

Strictly in time order. The model trains on the earliest part of the history; every choice is made on two later validation periods, with the most recent counting double; and a final period is locked in code — any attempt to read it before every choice is frozen stops the run. It is opened once, and the results are reported on it.

The deployment bar is intentionally severe: a model must hold up in its worst out-of-sample stretch, not just look good on average, and must survive higher trading costs than it was tested with. Average competence isn't enough — resilience is the test.

The benchmark isn't cash. It's buying and holding the same 100 stocks in equal amounts, so the model only earns credit for doing something genuinely smarter than holding them all. Every input is built only from information available before that morning's open, and the trading simulator itself uses only past prices — the lesson of the audit that retired the previous generation.

What market data, fundamentals, and news does it use?+

Daily prices and volume, company results and events, analyst views, and news — from an institutional-grade market-data provider, which avoids a whole class of mismatch problems that come from stitching vendors together.

News is not a positive/negative score. Each morning, before the open, a language model reads the recent articles on every share and estimates how likely a big move is, how big, and when the catalyst lands. It deliberately does not judge direction: language models have read the history they would be scored on, and direction scores that looked strong on past data collapsed on periods after the model's knowledge ended. Size and timing held up. Direction is left to the trading model, which weighs the news against everything else — § 06 shows it doing so, trade by trade.

Roughly how does it assess fundamentals?+

Not DCF, and not analyst-style valuation. Fundamentals enter as features drawn from each company's latest results and analyst views, and as cross-sectional ranks — where each stock sits relative to the rest of the universe on each dimension, each day. The model learns how much weight those deserve in each market regime, rather than following weights hard-coded by hand.

The cross-sectional ranking turned out to matter a great deal. In the Feb–May 2026 semiconductor selloff, the names that recovered were separable on analyst ratings and earnings revisions — but not on price momentum alone. A model looking only at price would have missed the distinction the fundamentals made visible.

How does it handle survivorship bias, reporting lags, news drift, corporate actions, and symbology?+

These are the traps that quietly wreck backtests. Handled one by one, including the honest limitations:

Survivorship
The honest answer: a fixed group of currently-listed large US companies, so universe selection does contain hindsight. Two mitigations. The benchmark is buy-and-hold of the same group, so universe-level survivorship largely cancels out of the alpha measurement — the model only gets credit for beating a basket carrying the identical bias. And these are mega/large caps, where delisting risk over the window is low. A known limitation, not a hidden one.
Reporting lags
Features are timestamped to when information was actually available, not to the fiscal period it describes — so the model is never fed a figure before the market would have had it. Automated checks throughout the pipeline are designed specifically to catch this kind of look-ahead.
Changing news bias
The subtlest trap with language models: they have read the history they are tested on. So the news scorer is never asked which way a stock will move — only how big a move is likely and when — and that measure was checked for any fall-off after the language model's knowledge cut-off. It showed none; direction scores did, and were dropped.
Corporate actions
Prices are split- and dividend-adjusted at source, and the fixed large-cap universe is checked for symbol-breaking events rather than assuming them away.
Symbology
Single primary data vendor, single broker, one fixed set of US tickers — so there's no cross-vendor mapping problem to get wrong. A deliberate scope decision, not an oversight.

For the sceptics

The harder questions

The questions a professional allocator would ask — answered the way they deserve to be answered, which is directly.

What evidence would convince you this no longer works?+

A sustained failure to beat the fair benchmark — buy-and-hold of the same basket — beyond pre-defined tolerances. That judgement is made by rule, against thresholds set in advance, not by mood after a bad month. Temporary underperformance inside historical norms is expected and tolerated; a breach of the pre-set floor triggers de-risking. A system with a harsh bar for going live must have an equally clear bar for stepping back.

Where is the biggest model risk?+

A future genuinely unlike anything in the training history. No amount of testing on the past fully removes that risk, and it would be dishonest to claim otherwise. The mitigations are structural: the worst-regime deployment gate, hard limits that sit outside the model's control, a strictly capped short exposure with the book kept net-long, and cash as an always-available position.

How do you avoid fooling yourselves with backtests?+

Several independent defences, all mechanical: every engineered input is tested by perturbing future data and asserting that today's values don't change; the trading simulator uses only past prices; testing is strictly in time order; the final period is locked in code and opened exactly once, after every choice is frozen; the deployment gate judges the worst window, not the average; and the benchmark is buy-and-hold of the same basket, so the system gets no credit for a rising market.

It is also why the previous generation was retired. A full audit found its simulator could see a little of the future in the periods it was tested on. The fix was not a patch but a rebuild — and the defences above are the result.

What is automated, and what still depends on human judgement?+

The production loop — data gathering, signal construction, decisions, execution, record-keeping — is fully automated, and the live model's daily decisions cannot be manually overridden. Human judgement operates one level up: choosing research directions, approving the promotion of a new model after it clears the full test regime, and deciding the rules themselves. People design the gauntlet; they don't reach into the machine.

Which parts of past performance might not repeat?+

Any specific stretch of returns reflects the regimes that happened to occur, and no particular window should be extrapolated. What is designed to repeat is the process: breadth of daily attention, cost-aware discipline, and survival-first gating. That is also why performance is judged against the fair benchmark over long horizons rather than sold on its best quarter.

Isn't a fixed universe of today's large caps survivorship bias?+

Partly, yes — choosing a basket of currently listed companies bakes some hindsight into the universe itself, and pretending otherwise would be dishonest. The mitigation is structural: the benchmark is buy-and-hold of the same basket, so whatever survivorship advantage the universe enjoys, the benchmark enjoys it equally — the system is only ever credited for beating a yardstick with the identical bias. These are also deeply established large companies where the risk of disappearance over the tested period is low, and the universe is fixed rather than quietly reshuffled.

How crowded is this trade?+

Far less than most systematic strategies, by construction. This is not a standard factor portfolio — there is no published recipe being followed alongside billions of dollars of similar money. The policy was learned, not copied; it applies to one specific basket; and its capacity needs are a rounding error in some of the world's most liquid shares. The honest caveat: crowding in the underlying names (large US equities are widely held) is unavoidable and shows up in the benchmark too — which is exactly why the benchmark is the yardstick.

How is genuine degradation told apart from a bad patch — and how often is the model refreshed?+

By pre-set rule, not by feel. Underperformance within the range seen across years of testing is a bad patch; a sustained breach of the pre-defined floor against the benchmark is degradation, and it triggers de-risking. Refresh runs continuously but promotes rarely: challenger models are trained and tested all the time, yet the production model changes only when a challenger beats it through the full gauntlet — the incumbent is never retired for novelty's sake.

If a competitor had this exact codebase, what's left?+

More than it might seem. The code is the smaller half; the accumulated record of what was tried and failed — thousands of discarded candidates and the reasons they died — is what steers the next generation, and it doesn't ship with the code. The validation discipline would also force any copy through the same multi-year gauntlet before it could be trusted. And a copy trades against the same costs and the same market, with none of the iteration behind it.

A quick vocabulary

The handful of terms worth knowing

Portfolio
The full collection of shares the system currently holds.
Benchmark
A plain yardstick — usually just holding the market — to measure the system against.
Drawdown
How far the value has fallen from its recent peak before recovering.
Fundamentals
The health of a company — earnings, finances, and analyst views.
News scorer
The language model that reads each share's recent articles before the open and estimates the odds of a big move.
Target weight
The share of the portfolio the model wants a stock to hold; trades close the gap.
Holdout
A final stretch of history kept locked until every choice is made, then opened once.
Ensemble
Several independently trained copies of a model, averaged — steadier than any single one.
Snapshot
The daily table, one row per share, that the model reads to decide.

The project

About this system

iClaudius Capital is an independent systematic trading operation. The goal is straightforward: run a disciplined, fully-automated strategy well enough, and for long enough, to build a verified public track record that can stand on its own.

That record — accumulated on a recognised platform where every trade is logged and independently measured — is the point. It's what turns a private strategy into something a third party can trust and, in time, back.

How this is run. Every function of the operation is systematised and auditable. Data acquisition runs on an automated daily pipeline with integrity checks; every engineered feature is leak-tested against future information; candidate models are chosen only on periods they never trained on, face a final period locked until every choice is made, and must hold up in their worst stretch, not just on average, before any capital is committed; and live execution is fully automated, with hard risk limits that sit outside the model's control. Trades are logged and measured by an independent third-party platform, not self-reported.

The work is continual. Models are tested, refined, and replaced as the evidence dictates; nothing here is presented as finished or guaranteed.

Get in touch

Questions about the strategy or the track record? Enquiries are welcome by email.

info@iclaudiuscapital.com